Sabato’s Crystal Ball Says MN-01 is No Longer a “Safe Republican” District
Sabato’s Crystal Ball just moved Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” the latest sign that Rep. Brad Finstad is increasingly vulnerable in 2026.
The rating change comes as Jake Johnson’s campaign continues to build momentum across southern Minnesota around a message of lowering costs and solving problems for working families. Crystal Ball noted that Jake outraised Finstad in the first quarter of 2026 and that Finstad could be vulnerable to a “hypothetical Democratic wave.”
“People are tired of politicians who make life more expensive in southern Minnesota while selling us out to corporate donors in Washington,” said Jake Johnson. “This race will be competitive because voters across southern Minnesota want leadership that actually shows up, listens, and fights to make life more affordable.”
The shift follows recent polling showing Johnson within three points of Finstad and growing national attention on MN-01 as a top battleground race in 2026.
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